Hydrogen: Trucking's alternative fuel of the future

Hydrogen-powered trucks present an appealing alternative to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) for addressing the challenges of decarbonizing heavy-duty and long-haul trucking. As hydrogen production costs decline and investments in supporting infrastructure increase, hydrogen fuel cells are poised to become a commercially viable green alternative that outperforms fossil fuels. This viewpoint delves into the future of hydrogen in trucking.

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Hydrogen Trucking: An Alternative for Specific Applications

The rising demand for sustainable trucking and net-zero corporate objectives have intensified pressure on the transportation sector to decarbonize. Heavy-duty vehicles contribute to about a third of greenhouse gas emissions from road transport. Although they represent a small percentage of the total vehicles, the entire economy relies on them to move food, raw materials, and manufactured goods. Arthur D. Little (ADL) has investigated the potential benefits and challenges of hydrogen trucking in achieving commercial viability.

Advancements have made electrified powertrains a cost-effective option for various truck applications, particularly for lighter vehicles (under 12 tons) and shorter routes (under 150 kilometers). However, heavy-duty trucks (over 12 tons) designed for long-distance journeys (over 150 kilometers) face limitations when it comes to battery electric solutions due to their significant payload and range requirements.

The size and weight of the batteries required for heavy-duty trucks lead to restrictions on payload volumes. Figure 1 illustrates a method of categorizing trucks based on weight and range.

Figure 1. Truck Categories by Range, Weight, and Application

Despite anticipated major investments aimed at bolstering the performance of BEV trucks—such as the Tesla Semi—there will likely remain challenges for demanding trucking applications. Hydrogen fuel cell powertrains present an appealing green alternative to BEV trucks for heavy-duty, long-haul operations. With effective onboard storage, hydrogen-powered trucks can provide rapid refueling times and extended driving ranges.

The Case for Long-Distance Hydrogen Trucking

The necessary technology for hydrogen trucking is advancing swiftly; several original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are already deploying hydrogen heavy-duty trucks in their fleets (e.g., Hyundai in Switzerland and Germany). Although the current count of hydrogen-powered trucks is low, it is projected to rise sharply. Performance and cost remain crucial aspects for overall success, with hydrogen trucks demonstrating potential in range and loading dynamics for heavy-duty, long-haul uses.

Performance: Fast Refueling and Distance

Long-haul trucks have high energy demands and must navigate long distances on regulated schedules, making the availability of charging stations and distance range key factors. Hydrogen trucks offer refueling times significantly shorter than electric charging times and match current diesel models (15 minutes for hydrogen trucks compared to 90 minutes for BEVs). It is anticipated that long-haul hydrogen trucks could achieve operational ranges between 1,000 and 1,500 kilometers—comparable to current diesel trucks—leading to greater vehicle utilization compared to the 300 to 800-kilometer range of BEVs.

Cost: Analyzing Potential Savings

While industry experts see a competitive landscape for hydrogen trucks, uncertainties regarding future investments and their role in cost structures persist. Currently, a heavy-duty BEV truck costs two to three times more than its diesel equivalent.

A hydrogen truck may incur an additional 10%-20% cost relative to BEVs, making the initial investment substantial for fuel-cell vehicles. Industry forecasts suggest that retail prices for hydrogen fuel trucks could decrease significantly in due time, potentially bringing them to 40%-60% above comparable diesel models (not factoring in possible subsidies). Reductions in direct manufacturing costs and advancements in fuel cell power ratings and hydrogen tank sizes are anticipated to contribute to these price declines.

As of now, the production cost of green hydrogen hovers around $6 per kilogram, with pump prices estimated at around $8-$10 per kilogram. However, future reductions are expected, with renewable hydrogen costs projected to fall to $1.4-$2.3 per kilogram, potentially leading to pump prices between $3-$5 per kilogram, which would enable heavy-duty hydrogen trucks to be competitive in pricing. Furthermore, fuel cell systems are lighter than batteries, necessitating less fuel to achieve equivalent payloads.

Maintenance and repair (M&R) costs for BEVs are currently lower than those for diesel trucks and are predicted to continue declining. M&R costs for hydrogen trucks are expected to align similarly with those of diesel trucks; though, future advancements may lead to M&R costs for hydrogen trucks becoming comparable to BEVs.

Figure 2 illustrates a possible cost scenario juxtaposing diesel, BEV, and hydrogen heavy-duty trucks across specific cost metrics. This comparison excludes a comprehensive total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis. For instance, an estimate from the American Transportation Research Institute indicates that driver wages can comprise 20%-40% of the marginal cost per mile. The rapid charging potential of hydrogen trucks offers opportunities to reduce their TCO significantly.

Figure 2. Cost Development Scenarios for Diesel, BEV, and Hydrogen Heavy-Duty Trucks

Challenges to Overcome

While hydrogen trucks have advantages over BEVs for long-haul applications, ongoing infrastructure development is essential to tackle costs and fuel production challenges. Additionally, OEMs need to amplify production to ensure hydrogen trucks become more accessible.

Developing the Refueling Infrastructure

In an ideal future, a dual-dispenser hydrogen filling station could serve 200 trucks per day, contrasting with a station featuring a fast charger that services only one BEV truck per hour.

Though hydrogen trucks possess superior distance capabilities and short refueling times compared to BEVs, the infrastructure necessary to support hydrogen trucking is lagging in comparison to electric alternatives. For instance, Europe currently has limited hydrogen refueling stations that cater to trucks. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the EU and the UK will require 300 hydrogen refueling stations by a specified year and 1,000 by another to keep pace with demand.

Achieving these targets will require strategic investments and binding agreements with EU member states. Philips 66 and H2 Energy Europe have partnered to create a hydrogen refueling network of 250 sites by a designated year across Germany, Austria, and Denmark. Additionally, the European Commission has recently approved a funding deployment of €5.2 billion (~$5.8 billion) aimed at backing research, deployment, and construction of hydrogen infrastructure focused on renewable and low-carbon hydrogen. This funding could unlock an additional €7 billion (~$7.5 billion) from the private sector.

The technology for refueling ranges from liquid to gaseous hydrogen (350 or 700 bar), and standards are likely to emerge as more hydrogen filling stations become operational, which will contribute to reducing capital expenditure and easing the commercial rollout. By utilizing elements of existing filling station infrastructure, such as compact designs and universal components, the capital expenditure per hydrogen filling station is projected to decrease by roughly 50% by a specific year.

Gaining Scale Benefits for Commercial Availability

Several projects featuring limited numbers of hydrogen fuel cell trucks are currently underway. Initiatives from collaborations like H2Accelerate, HyTrucks, and Hyundai aim to place an additional 4,000 hydrogen trucks on European roads by a set year.

By the decade's end, production scaling to 10,000 vehicles annually is anticipated, potentially resulting in 100,000 long-haul trucks populating European roads by a specified year, accounting for less than 2% of the total truck fleet. Mass production of essential components, including fuel cells and tanks, is vital for OEMs; many are collaborating with suppliers to enhance availability (e.g., Quantron with Ballard, Hyliko with Plastic Omnium, Man with Forvia) or actively engaging in supply (e.g., Daimler and Volvo established Cellcentric to produce hydrogen-based fuel cells).

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Although the purchase price may symbolize an initial hurdle for widespread hydrogen trucks adoption, lifetime fuel costs represent the most significant financial consideration. As production escalates and costs decrease, the economic competitiveness of hydrogen trucks compared to diesel counterparts is anticipated to improve, with pump prices ranging from €3.5 to €5 (~$3.75-$5.35) per kilogram of hydrogen, according to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

Research conducted by ADL and others suggests that the TCO for hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks is likely to be lower than that of comparable diesel models by a defined year. However, leading OEMs claim that savings in fuel and maintenance could make hydrogen trucks more economical to own as early as a specified year.

Encouraging Investment in Hydrogen Trucks

Government policies and subsidies designed to support hydrogen trucking technology are essential for further advancements. European governments must promote hydrogen development through subsidies, catalyzing investments in the associated infrastructure and technology adoption. Initial growth will create economies of scale and further expansion. Many European states are already endorsing this evolution by offering purchasing subsidies specific to hydrogen trucks (see Figure 3). On a broader European level, the IPCEI on Hydrogen program, which covers an extensive hydrogen value chain, serves as a prime example, financing over 40 projects across 15 EU countries with a total of €5.4 billion.

Figure 3. Hydrogen Truck Subsidy Examples from Selected European Nations

Meeting Hydrogen Demand

In order to satisfy the projected hydrogen demand, the global hydrogen supply must increase sixfold compared to previous levels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that transport will account for roughly 40% of hydrogen consumption by a specified year (see Figure 4).

Figure 4. Projected Global Hydrogen Consumption Through a Defined Year (Metric Tons)

Scaling up electrolysis capacity and ensuring access to affordable renewable electricity are two essential factors for fulfilling this demand using low-carbon hydrogen.

Onsite electrolyzers are being installed alongside refueling stations, with infrastructure also accommodating hydrogen delivered through tube trailers and centrally produced in future industrial hubs near refineries, ammonia plants, or methanol production facilities. Current electrolyzers vary in capacity from 1 to 20 megawatts, yet they face challenges like low availability and less-than-ideal performance. The hydrogen economy necessitates projects ranging from 30+ to 100+ megawatts. It is anticipated that full technical maturity—indicated by achieving a technology readiness level of 10 (TRL10)—will be reached by the mid-decade mark.

In a previous year, globally, over 30 gigawatts worth of renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) were signed. However, many of those projects have primarily targeted corporations (e.g., tech giants like Google and Facebook, retail companies, and industrial businesses) that have shifted from solely focusing on sustainability concerns to also reducing their exposure to fluctuating electricity markets. Members of RE100, a global initiative comprising over 125 companies, have committed to sourcing 100% of their energy needs from renewable sources by another specified year, necessitating over 90 gigawatts of PPAs in the upcoming eight years. Electrolysis will face competition for renewable energy access from these corporations and from BEV charging stations, potentially requiring additional terawatt hours by another specified year, produced by more than 500 gigawatts of renewable capacity.

Conclusion

Heavy-Duty Hydrogen Trucking Is Inevitable

The adoption of hydrogen trucks is projected to increase significantly due to the following reasons:

1. Its viability as a solution for decarbonizing heavy-duty and long-haul trucking.

2. Shorter refueling times and longer distance ranges, making it an attractive option for various applications.

3. Reduced TCO when compared to diesel equivalents, driven by anticipated declines in hydrogen production and initial purchase costs.

Significant development is still required to broaden the hydrogen refueling infrastructure, secure green hydrogen supply, and incentivize the future growth of hydrogen trucks. This will necessitate collaboration between public and private sectors alongside joint investments.